The government discussed five scenarios of sanctions

The authorities allow the strengthening of sanctions, including restrictions on foreign travel, the involvement of one of Russia's Asian partners in the sanctions pressure and the strengthening of secondary sanctions

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The government discussed possible scenarios for increasing sanctions pressure from Western countries, Vedomosti reports. with reference to materials for the meeting, which took place on August 30 under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

The list of sanctions risks identified by government members includes:

  • restrictions on international mobility Russians,
  • expanding the list of unfriendly countries,
  • strengthening secondary sanctions,
  • additional restrictions on energy exports,
  • expanding the list of sanctioned companies and companies banned from supply of goods and technologies.

One of the newspaper's sources explained that the limitation of international mobility means not so much tourism as difficulties for business, science, education, humanitarian exchanges.

The second risk— expansion of the list of unfriendly countries— may involve attempts by Western countries to involve one of the largest Asian partners, as well as members of the EAEU, in the imposition of sanctions, the source said.

As for the introduction of additional restrictions on energy exports, the government expects that this may reduce budget revenues and have an impact on a greater number of Russian industries.

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A representative of the Ministry of Economic Development told Vedomosti that the risks were formed as a result of discussions with industry departments. He confirmed that the government meeting took into account both existing and “not yet realized risks associated with sanctions.”

One of the newspaper's sources explained that the risks are assessed in advance in order to quickly respond to them and minimize the negative impact. According to him, the new socio-economic strategy of the government, among other things, involves the implementation of quick projects. This, for example, should help to quickly replace certain goods or components if there is a risk of shortage.

According to the interlocutor of Vedomosti, the most severe sanctions have already been introduced, so no fundamental changes are expected from the announcement of new ones. Valery Vaysberg agrees that increasing restrictions on Russia is the main scenario. He suggested that it could become tangible in the first quarter of next year, after the consequences of the oil embargo are understood, as well as after Europe passes the heating season.

In his opinion, the effect of sanctions will depend on whether they are directed restrictions on curbing imports or reducing exports. Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Alexander Isakov, in turn, believes that the effect will be influenced by the degree of sensitivity of industries: those focused on the domestic market, such as retail, will go through this period with fewer losses, but export sectors may suffer more.

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